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 On Friday the 16th 2009 the citizens of Botswana will return to the polls for the country’s tenth national elections. Election 2009, it might seem, will prove to be business as usual. In all probability the ruling Botswana Democratic Party will once again secure a victory.
Despite the likely opposition gains, the BDP looks set to govern for another five year term. Yet the conclusion that the election 2009 will be business as usual is discernibly unjustified. The reasons are numerous; above all elections 2009 are dominated by internal fighting within the main political parties, namely the Botswana Democratic and Botswana National Front.
This issue has occupied space in the news media and airtime in electronic media, overshadowing other immediate concerns of the electorates. Numerous court battles were fought on disputed primary elections, suspensions and expulsions of members. In this year’s elections there are more than 140 independent candidates of which a significant number is a result of inner-party wars.
The net effect of these mekoko (Independent candidates as they are known in Setswana political lingo) will be vote splitting to deny their former political parties victory in certain wards and constituencies. As it is usually the case with previous elections, BDP has approached these elections with messages reminding Batswana that they have as the ruling party transformed Botswana’s economy from a very poor country at independence to a better one.
They blow their own horn about their achievements and promise to continue developing Botswana. But the significance and impact of these messages is slowly waning owing to the demographic profiles of the country which is young, and other dynamics.
The opposition, particularly the BCP, has successfully propagated the regressing democracy as an important issue in this year’s elections. There are concerns that Botswana’s democracy is becoming authoritarian.
Issues such as the perpetual issuance of presidential directives which is seen as an antithesis of consultation and participation; police brutality including torturer, inhuman and degrading treatment and extrajudicial killings of suspected criminals; perceived militarisation of the civil service through appointments and secondments of soldiers to civilian positions; perceived intolerance of dissent and perceived desire by the president to rule single handedly both in government and the ruling party; erosion of civil liberties and freedoms and the Directorate of Intelligence and Security’s role; weak parliament neutralized through threats to would be vocal ruling party Members of Parliament; elitism, cronyism and patronage, perceived dynastic succession and politics of blood relations; the constitution on substantial presidential powers and immunity from prosecution highlighted in Gomolemo Motswaledi’s case; the 30% alcohol levy and stringent regulations and enforcement of alcohol trading hours; the unfairness of Botswana’s elections due to resource disparities between the BDP and opposition parties as well as the first-past-the-post electoral system; and threats to the media and abuse of the state media by the ruling party. The list is not exhaustive.
In a nutshell, Khama and his number two, the duo being former commanders of the Botswana Defence Force, are feared to be ruling the country by iron fist and that this may worsen in the post 2009 elections.
Statements such as the one downplaying the issue of extra-judicial killings and that military discipline would be borrowed to restore order have exacerbated this fear. There are other socio-economic issues in the 2009 elections.
Unemployment of both the educated or skilled and uneducated or unskilled is undoubtedly an issue and most voters in this lot may blame the ruling party for their unemployment misery consequently denying it their votes.
The cost of living is seemingly rising ad infinitum and voters are likely to attribute this concern to the failure of the ruling party to mitigate the adverse effects of this problem. Poverty, income and wealth inequalities are also important matters in 2009.
Those affected especially in cities and towns may want to punish the BDP but the rural poor will continue to support it. Civil servants, who are usually a scapegoat for inefficient and ineffective government, are continuously fearful of their future since the arrival of Khama.
This group’s significance in determining the winner should not be undermined. Education particularly cost sharing major initiated by government purportedly to assist government in providing education and difficult access to tertiary education have probably compelled many youths to register in large numbers so they can have a say through their vote.
The BDP will most likely retain its traditional rural constituencies, where the poor, uneducated and uninformed electorates reside. The ruling party’s popular vote may dwindle further and the worst case scenario will be less than 50% popular vote.
The BNF will have some gains in Ngwaketse, Kanye, Kgalagadi, Letlhakeng and Gaborone (South) but will lose some seats in its ‘conflict zones’ such as Lobatse, Gaborone North, Gaborone West South and others.
The BCP and its allies BAM and NDF will make inroads in Bobirwa, Gaborone, Francistown, Nkange, Chobe, Ngami, Selebi-Phikwe, Okavango, Ramotswa and elsewhere.
The BCP alliance is formidable and a force to reckon with, albeit not enough to snatch state power this year.
It has been organized, focused and projected itself as a credible alternative. It should not be underestimated and one cannot overrule a possibility that it may emerge the official opposition. Its popular vote may possibly double from previous elections. Other small parties (BPP, MELS etc) will be in the struggle for political survival and some may vanish further into political oblivion.
It is against this backdrop that the 2009 elections will be a challenge to BDP’s 43 years political hegemony.
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